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                New high for futures steel!

                Date:Nov 20,2020

                Steel spot market

                Construction steel: Today, domestic construction steel prices continue to rise. The average price of rebar in major cities is 4159 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the Mysteel rebar price index is 4184, an increase of 21 from the previous trading day. Specifically, today's black futures continue to strengthen as a whole, the snail futures hit a new high this year, and the market mentality has improved. On the news, Mysteel data showed that construction steel production declined slightly this week, while steel mills and market inventories both declined, but the decline has narrowed. The apparent consumption of construction steel began to decline, indicating that the overall steel demand for downstream projects may gradually see The top fell back. On the whole, the short-term black futures market is relatively strong. In addition to the lack of spot resources in the market, steel mills have a strong willingness to support the price of construction steel. They have a strong support for the spot price of construction steel. However, considering that downstream demand is likely to gradually weaken, the spot price The resistance continues to rise, and it is expected that domestic construction steel prices may consolidate at a high level in the short term.


                Hot-rolled coils: The price of hot-rolled coils in major cities across the country continued to rise today. The national average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils was 4095 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In terms of subregions, prices in East China, South China, and Southwest China increased significantly, while prices in Central China, North China, Northeast China, and Northwest China increased slightly. Today, the black commodity futures market oscillated in a range, and the 01 contract closed up 0.79%. The spot market’s early quotations rose sharply, mainly due to the announcement of the executive meeting of the State Council last night, the deployment to boost key consumption of bulk consumption, promote the release of rural consumption potential, stabilize and expand auto consumption, encourage local adjustments and optimization of purchase restrictions, and launch a new round of auto sales When the news came out, the market confidence was boosted. The market believed that it would further stimulate demand. The night market rose in response, and the spot market opened in the morning to supplement the increase. After the increase, the transaction was generally normal, but the merchants were basically unwilling to sell at a lower price. Forced to accept the price, but basically purchase on demand, the wait-and-see mood is strong. Today’s Mysteel survey data is released. Steel mills’ output and inventory have increased, and the community stocks have continued to decline. However, in detail, East China has taken the lead in increasing the stocks. At present, from the perspective of regional prices, the best delivery of North Materials to East China is 11 In the second half of this month, Beicai began to move southward. Coupled with the cold wave, there are still uncertainties in the follow-up. Although there is policy support on the macro level, the release of high-price demand needs to wait and see. In the short term, it is still not recommended to chase high.


                Cold rolled coils: The spot price of cold rolled coils nationwide continues to rise today. The national average price was 4,977 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Among them, the Shanghai price was 5160 yuan/ton, the Lecong price was 4990 yuan/ton, and the Tianjin price was 4780 yuan/ton. Today, the overall transaction is average. In terms of regions, Shanghai, Nanjing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shenyang, Chongqing, Chengdu, Lanzhou, Shijiazhuang and other places rose by 10-100 yuan/ton. Today, electronic disks are volatile, and hot coil spot prices continue to rise. Businesses are mainly optimistic. The meeting of the State Council deployed to boost the stability of bulk consumption and expand the consumption of automobiles, launching a new round of autos going to the countryside and trade-in for new ones, which will further stimulate downstream consumption of sheet materials. On the whole, it is expected that cold rolled prices will continue to run strongly tomorrow.


                Plate: The domestic plate market price is strong today. The national average price of 20mm plate is 4022 yuan/ton, which is 10 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous trading day. Prices in Nanjing, Guangzhou, Beijing, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing, and Chengdu increased by 10-30 yuan/ton, and the prices in Jinan, Taiyuan, Shenyang, Harbin, Urumqi, and Wu'an were temporarily stable. Today's futures trend continues to fluctuate upward, but merchants are cautious and wait and see. In terms of transactions, today's overall market transactions are acceptable, mainly low-priced goods, and high-priced transactions are difficult. It is understood that the current pace of arrivals in the market is slowing down, but agents are mainly selling goods to warehouses, and the demand performance has not seen heavy demand. Some merchants are still under pressure on inventory, and the willingness to increase prices is low. On the whole, the short-term market price increase space may be limited, and the domestic plate prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level tomorrow.


                Raw material spot market


                Imported ore: The imported iron ore market continues to perform strongly today. The iron ore market prices in the Northeast region rose this morning, and traders have a firmer mind. The price of Jinbuba powder was 920 yuan/ton, the price of 57% printing powder was 735 yuan/ton, and the quotation of Mike powder was 930 yuan/ton. Inquiry enthusiasm for mid-product resources in the factory has increased, and there are fewer inquiries for low-quality printing powder. Today, it is counted that Bayuquan Mike powder was sold at 925 yuan/ton. In the morning, Tianjin traders’ quotations increased by about RMB 10/ton from yesterday, Tianjin Port’s PB powder was offered at 900 yuan/ton, and Jinbuba powder was offered at 865 yuan/ton; traders in the afternoon raised their quotations by around RMB 5/ton. Steel mills have fewer offers, inquiries are low, and market sentiment is not high. Recently, the price of pellets has risen, the cost performance of lump ore has increased, and the demand for lump ore has improved. As of press time, PB powder was sold at 900/ton in Tianjin, Newman block was sold at 940/ton, and Newman sieved block was sold at 948/ton.


                Coke: The coke market is strong today, and the current round of increase has landed, with a cumulative increase of 350 yuan. In terms of supply, Shanxi, Henan and other places are still expected to reduce production capacity, and coke supply is tight. Some coke companies have been affected by environmental inspections and their output fluctuates slightly. On the demand side, steel mills have started operations at a high level. Positive, some steel mills' inventories rebounded slightly. In terms of ports, the port spot market is operating steadily and strongly, the market trading atmosphere is harmonious, the transaction volume is slightly lower, and the circulation resources are mainly long-term customers. It is expected that the coke market will operate steadily and strongly in the short term. Later, attention will be paid to the implementation of the production capacity elimination policy and the impact of the environmental protection production restriction policy on the coke market.


                Scrap steel: Today, the scrap steel market is operating within a narrow range. A few steel mills have adjusted their prices. Today, mainstream steel mills' scrap purchase prices are temporarily stable. On the 19th, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2498 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specific to the steel mills, on the 19th, the East China leading steel companies unloaded 26,998.36 tons of scrap yesterday, an increase of 9.31% from the previous day; today, there are 49 ships, 6 sea ships, 366 vehicles and 32 briquettes. Today's black futures market continues to be firm, scrap steel prices will mainly pull back in the short term, waiting to see the price trend of finished products. Due to the recent sharp increase in the price of finished products, the profitability of electric furnace plants has increased and production has increased, leading to an increase in the output of finished products this week. The demand for scrap steel is still good. Therefore, scrap prices are still supportive. The future scrap market needs to pay close attention to the trend of finished products. The scrap steel market is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term.


                Steel market forecast


                On the supply side: According to Mysteel research, the output of large steel products this Friday was 10.7522 million tons, an increase of 67,000 tons on a week-on-week basis. Beginning on the 18th, heavy pollution warnings were lifted in many parts of the country, and steel production rebounded slightly.


                In terms of demand: the apparent consumption of major steel products this Friday was 11.7181 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 474,800 tons.


                In terms of inventory: The total inventory of major steel products this Friday (community warehouse + factory warehouse) was 15.538 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 965,900 tons, and the decline was significantly narrower than last week.


                There are a lot of good news on the macro front recently, including Pfizer Vaccine’s announcement of a 95% effective boost to international oil prices, and the National Standing Committee’s deployment to boost major consumer key consumption. Today’s black futures market is open and volatile, and the mood is optimistic. However, the downstream is not very accepting of high-priced resources, the spot market volume gradually shrank this week, and the stock decline of the five major steel products also narrowed compared with last week. According to Mysteel's survey of 237 distributors, the daily trading volume of building materials on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday was 256,300 tons, 253,800 tons and 204,900 tons respectively. There may be limited room for steel prices to rise in the later period, and the spot price has reached a high level. It is recommended that profits are mainly cashed out.

                TypeInfo: Trade news

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